Archive for the ‘Futures Thinking’ Category
Where do we go from here?
Part Three: Agency and self-determinations, retaking the future without Marx
Gerry Hassan and Anthony Barnett
Open Democracy, August 5th 2010
This is the third, final, exchange of a wide-ranging three part conversation between Anthony Barnett and Gerry Hassan, touching on the state of British politics and democracy and how the left – weak and disorganised in the face of a resurgent neoliberalism – can propose and build alternatives to the dominant dogmas of the past thirty years. You can read Part I ‘The frustrations of British politics’ here, and Part 2 ‘Challenging the Official Future’ here.
Gerry, Thanks very much indeed,
Your response has sent me into shock. I good one, perhaps, but also painful, hence the delay in my reply. One part of me is trying to sort out what to make of the peculiar new situation here in the UK. Has the Coalition given energy to a conservative modernisation, talking about ‘progressive fairness’ while, despite great legislation on liberty, reasserting traditional forms of centralised control behind a programme of indirect rule known as ‘the Big Society’? Or can its communitarian appeal to self-help gather genuine political momentum?
But you have called for something more far-reaching than a response to the British situation, however sweeping this might be in confronting the entire edifice of British rule. You want to recast the way to think about change in terms of four forms of self-determination: economic, social and cultural and even “futures self-determination” which you see as perhaps the most important. This approach and its terminology to replace socialism.
I want to agree. Let’s put aside the hubris in any claim to “futures self-determination” which I’d certainly argue over as I think modesty is a central virtue not just a character trait (see Philip Pullman at the Convention).
Replacing socialism has to be a practical and strategic ambition not just a theoretical or moral one. It is all very well calling for a better way of life and a political ideology that could replace socialism or social democracy, but who is going to make it happen? What force or agency could deliver your self-determinations? What interests could be gathered around such an approach and successfully defy the currently existing vested interests of the state and corporate capitalism? Read the rest of this entry »
Where do we go from here?
Part Two: Challenging ‘the Official Future’
Gerry Hassan and Anthony Barnett
Open Democracy, August 4th 2010
This is the second of a wide-ranging three part conversation between Anthony Barnett and Gerry Hassan, touching on the state of British politics and democracy and how the left – weak and disorganised in the face of a resurgent neoliberalism – can propose and build alternatives to the dominant dogmas of the past thirty years. You can read Part I here.
Thanks for the message Gerry!
How am I supposed to get to sleep without an answer to the next onslaught of neo-liberalism!
I agree and disagree, so lets start with the latter which is more interesting. When I hear the word “values” I reach for the off-switch. What we need is democracy, meaning a fight to get power into the hands of citizens. To achieve this calls for a constitutional settlement that permits and protects democracy and the law-based human and minority rights, liberty and privacy that are the essential framework for any majority decision taking. So we do need to debate and change processes, structures and in our case the UK constitution which is a dangerously broken beast.
I strongly agree that this needs to be combined with a far-reaching political economics that we don’t have as yet.
You can see the essential combination of democracy, structures and the economy at play in the ham-fisted debate that is taking place in the Euro-zone about fiscal policy.
Why am I not as alarmed as you? Meaning I am in a state of alarm but not yet despair. First, there is economic growth taking place around the world from which many are benefiting. Second, the digital revolution is transforming productivity and will eventually open the way to green, sustainable energy too. The application of IT is part of the problem, of course, as it is disrupting so much so profoundly. As well as creating a monstrous potential threat to liberty. Yet also, it’s leading to new forms of politics that could provide the means for democrats to organise democracy (instead of having this done for us by parties). Read the rest of this entry »
Where do we go from here?
Part One: The frustrations of British politics
Gerry Hassan and Anthony Barnett
Open Democracy, August 2nd 2010
In the first of a wide-ranging three part conversation, Anthony Barnett and Gerry Hassan discuss the state of British politics and democracy and how the left – weak and disorganised in the face of a resurgent neoliberalism – can propose and build alternatives to the dominant dogmas of the past thirty years.
Hi Gerry,
There is a strange mixture of moods here in political London. There is a Tory right, with Spectatorish leanings, used to dominating the argument across most of the print media and bullying the BBC. It is aghast at the coup Cameron has dealt them. He has got office, the highest validation of principle in the Tory cannon, yet he has won it by delivering the liberal Toryism they scorned (and hoped he was merely pretending to advocate).
It is a truism that Britain (and even, arguably, England) is a centre left society. But the ruling elite has never been and they are astounded by the coalition. This includes the BBC which refused to regard the ‘database state’ as important or report the fears of an intrusive state, which were very widespread, as ‘relevant’. Mark Thompson, its Director General, recently told Broadcasting House that he favoured opening the archives as the BBC’s coverage over the years gives a “pretty good portrait of people’s lives and emotions”. But no one who listens to its broadcasts of the past few years would come away with any understanding of why the Coalition has set about rolling back the intrusive, controlling state. The BBC, of course, is part of it, thanks to the license fee. Read the rest of this entry »
After the Century of Isms: What is the Future of the Future?
Gerry Hassan
July 7th 2010
1. How Do We Think of the Future?
This talk is going to take us on a journey into the future, look at the idea of ‘story’ and ‘the official future’, what it is, why we are living in it, and the possible alternatives. In this it will draw on the work of two futures projects – Scotland 2020 (1) and Glasgow 2020 (2) – which I led working with the UK think tank Demos.
2. The Notion of Futurology
The conventional way of looking at the future can be found in the notion of futurology. The origins of this can be found in the evolution of military planning at the end of the Second World War and the early years of the Cold War. This came together in the establishment in the immediate post-war era of the RAND Corporation who gave birth to the modern idea of futurology. From this time – such futures concepts emerged as ‘the three Ps’ and ‘the W’: probable, possible and preferred futures, and the ‘wicked issues’; along with scenario planning (3).
It is not a surprise that this age gave us the modern idea of futures thinking in the heart of the American military-industrial complex: for this was the greatest constellation of power the world had ever seen which had embraced mass production and ‘total war’ to defeat alongside the Soviets the Nazi and Japanese war machines. This period also gave us from futures thinking such ideas which appear in everyday life as ‘the war room’ and ‘the think tank’.
Futurology has become one of the languages of the world’s elites: of governments, corporates like BP and Shell, and the rich and powerful. This has made it more and more problematic, along with the democratising effect of the internet. This has begun to be noticed even in the mainstream by ‘The Economist’ who have stated ‘futurology as we knew it 30 or 40 years ago … is all but dead.’ Instead, futurists ‘have stopped claiming to predict what ‘will’ happen. They say that they ‘tell stories’ about what might happen’ (4). Read the rest of this entry »
The Power of Story and Hope Continued
Gerry Hassan
December 9th 2009
A beautiful piece by Libby Brooks in ‘The Guardian’ today on the wonderful work of the Galgael Trust in Govan who build astounding boats – Gaelic longboats or birlinns – and use this to aid young men and women refinding traditional skills, hope and exploring the waterways of the river Clyde (1).
Her article also has a very positive mention of my Glasgow 2020 project, coming up for two and half years after it concluded its activities. She states talking about the work and conclusions of Glasgow 2020 that ‘if a sense of history is about a grasp of narrative and one’s place in it, this can only assist us in imagining the future’. The project found that ‘inhabitants of some of the most deprived areas continued to tell stories of optimism for the future of their families, friends and neighbourhoods’. She concludes, ‘The true legacy of history can be hope’. Read the rest of this entry »
